Back to back nights our breakeven wasn't able to hold and we have been taken out. But it was a solid gain on the first target and adds to the fantastic start to Febuary. Have a good night and we will see you again tomorrow morning.
P&L Trade Totals
Ex-1 = $809.00
Ex-2 = $379.00
----------------------------------
P&L System Totals
Ex-1 = $4402.00 (+44.02% on our 10,000 deposit) - Ex-1 is closing the gap.
Ex-2 = $5258.00 (+52.58% on our 10,000 deposit)
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
TF Stopped Out
Our breakeven got hit on a pullback but still a nice little winner. We'll just keep chipping away.
Out @ 610.4
P&L Trade Totals
Ex-1 = $229.00
Ex-2 = $89.00
Out @ 610.4
P&L Trade Totals
Ex-1 = $229.00
Ex-2 = $89.00
TF 1st Target Hit
Another nice winner to put us 2 for 2 today with more upside looking strong.
Out @ 611.80
2nd Target @ 614.00
Move stop to breakeven @ 610.50
Out @ 611.80
2nd Target @ 614.00
Move stop to breakeven @ 610.50
TF Long Entry
Symbol: TF
Chart: 5m
Entry: Buy Stop @ 610.9
Stop: 608.2
Target 1: 611.8
Target 2: 614
Target 3: 617.5
Chart: 5m
Entry: Buy Stop @ 610.9
Stop: 608.2
Target 1: 611.8
Target 2: 614
Target 3: 617.5
GC 1st Target Hit
I know the post and the entry were right after one another but we did get a pull back to where we got in. So I hope anyone you missed our first entry got in on the second go around.
Out @ 1116.8
2nd Target = 1121.4
Move stop to breakeven @ 1112.6
Out @ 1116.8
2nd Target = 1121.4
Move stop to breakeven @ 1112.6
GC Trade Triggered
I was trying to get the post out and trade on as quick as I could.
I am long 3 @ 1112.6
I am long 3 @ 1112.6
GC Long Entry
Symbol: GC
Chart: 15m
Entry: Buy Stop @ 1112.4
Stop: 1109.2
Target 1: 1116.8
Target 2: 1121.4
Target 3: 1128.9
Chart: 15m
Entry: Buy Stop @ 1112.4
Stop: 1109.2
Target 1: 1116.8
Target 2: 1121.4
Target 3: 1128.9
SOH
Market is in chop this morning. Nothing is looking good. Pending homes sales just came in line at 1%. We will be sitting out until something starts to make a move.
Today’s Market Guidance
Financial Overview:
The stock market managed a quasi reversal trade yesterday but since that reversal wasn't off a gap down type exhaustion move, we aren't as optimistic about a sustained recovery move ahead. In fact, despite the favorable US ISM readings yesterday and the promise of jobs as a priority in Washington, we remain skeptical of the track of the economy. While the market will continue to see corporate earnings news flow, the market recently hasn't been that attuned to favorable earnings. With a brokerage firm upgrade of Pub stocks overnight seemingly providing a lift to UK stocks, favorable Australian economic views and a jump in German retail sales overnight the bulls seem to have more news in their camp than the bear camp in the early going today. However, seeing the Australian Central Bank hold steady with interest rates overnight was somewhat surprising to the trade, as many thought that economy was moving forward and was in need of further rate adjustments. In looking forward, the bulls will need to see a positive reading from US Pending home sales figures to extend the generally bullish bias that seemed to surface in earnest yesterday morning.
Dow:
The March Mini Dow clearly seems to have found fairly solid support from the even number 10,000 level over the prior three trading sessions and given the slightly higher early action again today, we have to leave the initial edge with the bull camp. However, the Pending Home Sales report at 9:00 should be seen as a major pivot point today as the market would seem to need constant economic gratification to extend the bullish track. At least in the early action today, the March Mini Dow looks to have initial resistance up at 10,192 and then again up at even numbers of 10,250.
Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The market setup is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next downside target is 9973. The next area of resistance is around 10220 and 10252, while 1st support hits today at 10080 and below there at 9973.
S&P:
The March S&P managed to regain the 100 day moving average late yesterday and has managed to hold above that level in the early going today. From a technical perspective initial resistance is now seen up at 1093 but it could take favorable Pending Home sales data and something positive from the auto sales report later today to see the March S&P manage a return to the 1100 level today. We would suggest that traders simply take the Pending Home sales figure at its face value this morning, as the market probably can't tolerate much in the way of economic disappointment.
Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. The next downside objective is 1063.38. The next area of resistance is around 1095.75 and 1100.37, while 1st support hits today at 1077.25 and below there at 1063.38.
NASDAQ:
While the Nasdaq is showing positive early action again this morning prices have only managed to regain half of the big range down loss that was posted last Friday. The 100 day moving average in the March Nasdaq is seen up at 1774.50 today, with most technical systems looking to remain bearish, as long as the March Nasdaq remains below the 1770 level. As in the rest of the market, the Nasdaq would seem to need more evidence from the self propagating recovery front in order to throw off the downward tilt that has dominated the equity markets since the middle of January.
US Dollar:
Apparently improved macro economic expectations toward the US economy have robbed the Dollar bulls of some control over the last 36 hours of trade. In other words, the Dollar seems to be losing some buying interest to those looking for more 'risk'. With a series of global economic numbers over the last two sessions coming in positive and global equity markets also showing the best action in over two weeks, it is possible that the Dollar will see some additional weakness directly ahead. However, since the late November low, the Dollar has seen a sea change and that new found respect could serve to check near term weakness in the Greenback. In fact, in the wake of anything soft from the US Pending Home sales report this morning, the Dollar could come back into vogue, especially since the March Dollar Index looks to have fairly solid close-in support around the 79.26 level.
Gold:
The April gold market comes into the US Tuesday action with a positive bias, with prices reaching the highest level since January 21st. Clearly a weaker US dollar trade is providing some lift, but it also seems as if improved macro economic sentiment is contributing to the bull case. Some bulls will suggest that soaring US budget deficit news is also a major contributor to the upward tilt in gold prices over the last 36 hours, while others will cite the bullish World Gold Council study yesterday on the correlation between world money supply levels, as the source of bullish gold market sentiment. Along those lines it is possible that some gold bulls will try to push up gold prices this morning off the news that the Royal Bank of Australia held interest rates steady last night, instead of hiking rates as expected by the trade. In short, the bulls seem to be embracing weaker Dollar action and favorable global equity market action, while the bear camp remains hopeful that slack US numbers will return soon. While the strong ISM readings yesterday morning seemed to prompt a sea change in economic sentiment, economic sentiment at the end of last week appeared to be very poor and that could mean that the markets will need constant help from the US numbers to maintain the last 24 hours optimism.
Silver:
Like the gold market, the silver market is showing follow through gains in the early Tuesday morning trade with the May silver contract managing to reach the highest level since January 27th. Relatively speaking, the silver bounce over the last 24 hours seems to be lagging somewhat behind the gold market bounce. It is somewhat surprising to see silver lag behind gold, especially in the wake of what appears to be an improvement in global macro economic psychology. In fact, after the much stronger than expected US ISM readings yesterday morning and a noted rally in copper and platinum prices, some silver traders expected the silver market to catch a more distinct recovery lift. With the 100 day moving average in May silver still all the way up at $17.49 today, it is clear that the silver market suffered a rather aggressive and compacted washout over the last two weeks. Apparently silver saw only limited benefit overnight from news yesterday afternoon, that US mint silver coin sales for the month of January rose. However, the silver trade has generally been more interested in the ebb and flow of classic investment demand news and therefore potentially favorable physical demand side news is sometimes given less credence.
Crude Oil:
March crude oil is seeing strong follow through gains in the early overnight action on an improved demand outlook in the US and China. With the market becoming extremely oversold and a better macro economic view taking hold raising sentiment toward a recovery in global fuel demand, it might just be enough to support a rally back to the $77.02 to $77.50 price range this week. Given the strength in oil overnight it looks as if the market is still feeling the effects of yesterday's economic news which showed global growth in the manufacturing sector in key oil consuming countries including the US, China and Europe which revived optimism for a recovery in oil demand this year. Crude oil has seen a $12 break from the January high with the market pressured by weak US fuel demand, China's efforts to tighten bank lending and jitters over tightening trading regulations for US banks. But it looks as if March crude oil may have become a bit too cheap near the $72.50 level considering the strength in 4th quarter GDP and with the ISM report suggesting economic momentum looks to have continued in January. It also looks as if some of the anxiety surrounding the outlook for China's oil demand has been offset by an article in China's government run newspaper predicting a significant jump in oil imports this year due to new refining capacity and government stockpiling. A report showing Russian oil production edged down in January may be contributing to positive sentiment. The market may also be adding some geopolitical risk back into the price on concerns that militant attacks against Nigerian oil facilities could pick up now that a cease fire has ended. But an improving demand outlook for oil based on better macro economic confidence are the main factors supporting the upside move in the oil market. In fact, if that outlook holds the oil markets may even be able to quickly shrug off an inventory report expected to show a rise in gasoline stocks of over 1.2 million barrels. With only US pending home sales out today, outside markets are likely to have more influence on oil market direction, which is providing price support to oil in the early going with equities up and the dollar a bit weaker in the overnight trade. Crude oil's oversold technical condition also gives the market an upside bias in the short run. The one caveat for the bull camp will be Volker testifying in front of the Senate Banking Committee to defend the President's proposal to restrict proprietary bank trading and that has the potential to shake market confidence. But the oil market feels to have an upward bias right now and if the economic news can continue to be positive, we suspect March crude oil has likely become sufficiently oversold that a rally back to the $77.00 to $78.44 range may be possible.
Natural Gas:
March natural gas has also been able to follow through higher overnight after yesterday's strong upside run and seeing the market move back above the 40 day moving average (at $5.511 today) is likely to give the market some additional upside traction. Lingering concerns over ample supplies and weak demand may be making some traders a bit hesitant to lift natural gas into a higher $5.50 to $5.75 trading range. But with natural gas becoming oversold on last week's price break, we suspect the better economic view being formed and a cooler weather forecast could be enough to provide a further lift to the market. Weather forecasters are predicting mostly below normal temperatures to blanket the US heating region over the next two weeks which should boost heating demand and help drain natural gas supplies which are still 5% above last year's level. But besides weather, we suspect yesterday's gains in natural gas were partially tied to the stronger than expected ISM manufacturing index reading which seemed to improve optimism for a recovery in industrial fuel demand. We think the market is technically well positioned to trade at higher price levels above $5.50, but March natural gas may still need some further economic convincing to support a move back to $5.75 and that may not be seen until later in the week since only minor economic reports are out this session. But we also see a limited downside for natural gas given the cooler weather forecast. Also, with solid overnight gains in the rest of the energy complex and strength in equities, positive outside market influences should provide some additional price support to natural gas. Daily technical signals point to a higher trade. Seeing March natural gas make a push through critical resistance at $5.511 would then target $5.668 then $5.75 with support at $5.38 then $5.337.
The stock market managed a quasi reversal trade yesterday but since that reversal wasn't off a gap down type exhaustion move, we aren't as optimistic about a sustained recovery move ahead. In fact, despite the favorable US ISM readings yesterday and the promise of jobs as a priority in Washington, we remain skeptical of the track of the economy. While the market will continue to see corporate earnings news flow, the market recently hasn't been that attuned to favorable earnings. With a brokerage firm upgrade of Pub stocks overnight seemingly providing a lift to UK stocks, favorable Australian economic views and a jump in German retail sales overnight the bulls seem to have more news in their camp than the bear camp in the early going today. However, seeing the Australian Central Bank hold steady with interest rates overnight was somewhat surprising to the trade, as many thought that economy was moving forward and was in need of further rate adjustments. In looking forward, the bulls will need to see a positive reading from US Pending home sales figures to extend the generally bullish bias that seemed to surface in earnest yesterday morning.
Dow:
The March Mini Dow clearly seems to have found fairly solid support from the even number 10,000 level over the prior three trading sessions and given the slightly higher early action again today, we have to leave the initial edge with the bull camp. However, the Pending Home Sales report at 9:00 should be seen as a major pivot point today as the market would seem to need constant economic gratification to extend the bullish track. At least in the early action today, the March Mini Dow looks to have initial resistance up at 10,192 and then again up at even numbers of 10,250.
Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. The close below the 9-day moving average is a negative short-term indicator for trend. The market setup is supportive for early gains with the close over the 1st swing resistance. The next downside target is 9973. The next area of resistance is around 10220 and 10252, while 1st support hits today at 10080 and below there at 9973.
S&P:
The March S&P managed to regain the 100 day moving average late yesterday and has managed to hold above that level in the early going today. From a technical perspective initial resistance is now seen up at 1093 but it could take favorable Pending Home sales data and something positive from the auto sales report later today to see the March S&P manage a return to the 1100 level today. We would suggest that traders simply take the Pending Home sales figure at its face value this morning, as the market probably can't tolerate much in the way of economic disappointment.
Daily stochastics declining into oversold territory suggest the selling may be drying up soon. A negative signal for trend short-term was given on a close under the 9-bar moving average. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position. The next downside objective is 1063.38. The next area of resistance is around 1095.75 and 1100.37, while 1st support hits today at 1077.25 and below there at 1063.38.
NASDAQ:
While the Nasdaq is showing positive early action again this morning prices have only managed to regain half of the big range down loss that was posted last Friday. The 100 day moving average in the March Nasdaq is seen up at 1774.50 today, with most technical systems looking to remain bearish, as long as the March Nasdaq remains below the 1770 level. As in the rest of the market, the Nasdaq would seem to need more evidence from the self propagating recovery front in order to throw off the downward tilt that has dominated the equity markets since the middle of January.
US Dollar:
Apparently improved macro economic expectations toward the US economy have robbed the Dollar bulls of some control over the last 36 hours of trade. In other words, the Dollar seems to be losing some buying interest to those looking for more 'risk'. With a series of global economic numbers over the last two sessions coming in positive and global equity markets also showing the best action in over two weeks, it is possible that the Dollar will see some additional weakness directly ahead. However, since the late November low, the Dollar has seen a sea change and that new found respect could serve to check near term weakness in the Greenback. In fact, in the wake of anything soft from the US Pending Home sales report this morning, the Dollar could come back into vogue, especially since the March Dollar Index looks to have fairly solid close-in support around the 79.26 level.
Gold:
The April gold market comes into the US Tuesday action with a positive bias, with prices reaching the highest level since January 21st. Clearly a weaker US dollar trade is providing some lift, but it also seems as if improved macro economic sentiment is contributing to the bull case. Some bulls will suggest that soaring US budget deficit news is also a major contributor to the upward tilt in gold prices over the last 36 hours, while others will cite the bullish World Gold Council study yesterday on the correlation between world money supply levels, as the source of bullish gold market sentiment. Along those lines it is possible that some gold bulls will try to push up gold prices this morning off the news that the Royal Bank of Australia held interest rates steady last night, instead of hiking rates as expected by the trade. In short, the bulls seem to be embracing weaker Dollar action and favorable global equity market action, while the bear camp remains hopeful that slack US numbers will return soon. While the strong ISM readings yesterday morning seemed to prompt a sea change in economic sentiment, economic sentiment at the end of last week appeared to be very poor and that could mean that the markets will need constant help from the US numbers to maintain the last 24 hours optimism.
Silver:
Like the gold market, the silver market is showing follow through gains in the early Tuesday morning trade with the May silver contract managing to reach the highest level since January 27th. Relatively speaking, the silver bounce over the last 24 hours seems to be lagging somewhat behind the gold market bounce. It is somewhat surprising to see silver lag behind gold, especially in the wake of what appears to be an improvement in global macro economic psychology. In fact, after the much stronger than expected US ISM readings yesterday morning and a noted rally in copper and platinum prices, some silver traders expected the silver market to catch a more distinct recovery lift. With the 100 day moving average in May silver still all the way up at $17.49 today, it is clear that the silver market suffered a rather aggressive and compacted washout over the last two weeks. Apparently silver saw only limited benefit overnight from news yesterday afternoon, that US mint silver coin sales for the month of January rose. However, the silver trade has generally been more interested in the ebb and flow of classic investment demand news and therefore potentially favorable physical demand side news is sometimes given less credence.
Crude Oil:
March crude oil is seeing strong follow through gains in the early overnight action on an improved demand outlook in the US and China. With the market becoming extremely oversold and a better macro economic view taking hold raising sentiment toward a recovery in global fuel demand, it might just be enough to support a rally back to the $77.02 to $77.50 price range this week. Given the strength in oil overnight it looks as if the market is still feeling the effects of yesterday's economic news which showed global growth in the manufacturing sector in key oil consuming countries including the US, China and Europe which revived optimism for a recovery in oil demand this year. Crude oil has seen a $12 break from the January high with the market pressured by weak US fuel demand, China's efforts to tighten bank lending and jitters over tightening trading regulations for US banks. But it looks as if March crude oil may have become a bit too cheap near the $72.50 level considering the strength in 4th quarter GDP and with the ISM report suggesting economic momentum looks to have continued in January. It also looks as if some of the anxiety surrounding the outlook for China's oil demand has been offset by an article in China's government run newspaper predicting a significant jump in oil imports this year due to new refining capacity and government stockpiling. A report showing Russian oil production edged down in January may be contributing to positive sentiment. The market may also be adding some geopolitical risk back into the price on concerns that militant attacks against Nigerian oil facilities could pick up now that a cease fire has ended. But an improving demand outlook for oil based on better macro economic confidence are the main factors supporting the upside move in the oil market. In fact, if that outlook holds the oil markets may even be able to quickly shrug off an inventory report expected to show a rise in gasoline stocks of over 1.2 million barrels. With only US pending home sales out today, outside markets are likely to have more influence on oil market direction, which is providing price support to oil in the early going with equities up and the dollar a bit weaker in the overnight trade. Crude oil's oversold technical condition also gives the market an upside bias in the short run. The one caveat for the bull camp will be Volker testifying in front of the Senate Banking Committee to defend the President's proposal to restrict proprietary bank trading and that has the potential to shake market confidence. But the oil market feels to have an upward bias right now and if the economic news can continue to be positive, we suspect March crude oil has likely become sufficiently oversold that a rally back to the $77.00 to $78.44 range may be possible.
Natural Gas:
March natural gas has also been able to follow through higher overnight after yesterday's strong upside run and seeing the market move back above the 40 day moving average (at $5.511 today) is likely to give the market some additional upside traction. Lingering concerns over ample supplies and weak demand may be making some traders a bit hesitant to lift natural gas into a higher $5.50 to $5.75 trading range. But with natural gas becoming oversold on last week's price break, we suspect the better economic view being formed and a cooler weather forecast could be enough to provide a further lift to the market. Weather forecasters are predicting mostly below normal temperatures to blanket the US heating region over the next two weeks which should boost heating demand and help drain natural gas supplies which are still 5% above last year's level. But besides weather, we suspect yesterday's gains in natural gas were partially tied to the stronger than expected ISM manufacturing index reading which seemed to improve optimism for a recovery in industrial fuel demand. We think the market is technically well positioned to trade at higher price levels above $5.50, but March natural gas may still need some further economic convincing to support a move back to $5.75 and that may not be seen until later in the week since only minor economic reports are out this session. But we also see a limited downside for natural gas given the cooler weather forecast. Also, with solid overnight gains in the rest of the energy complex and strength in equities, positive outside market influences should provide some additional price support to natural gas. Daily technical signals point to a higher trade. Seeing March natural gas make a push through critical resistance at $5.511 would then target $5.668 then $5.75 with support at $5.38 then $5.337.
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