Alright, nice little move up in the after hour session. I thought we were going to hit this when the pits closed at 1:30 but it backed off. But no matter....
And as I type this Target 2 just hit on a big spike up so we got a real nice winner here after things were stuck in sideways action.
So I will up date the trade tracker. Lets get that 3rd target and move your stop on the final contract to breakeven if you are trading EX-2.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Trade Triggered
Long 3 QG @ 5.990
Updated targets
#1 - 6.025
#2 - 6.065
#4 - 6.130
Stop is still 5.945
Updated targets
#1 - 6.025
#2 - 6.065
#4 - 6.130
Stop is still 5.945
Nat Gas Entry
Symbol: QG
Chart: 5m
Entry: Buy Stop @ 5.985
Stop: 5.945
Target 1: 6.020
Target 2: 6.050
Target 3: 6.105
Chart: 5m
Entry: Buy Stop @ 5.985
Stop: 5.945
Target 1: 6.020
Target 2: 6.050
Target 3: 6.105
Afternoon volume
NYSE - 635 million today vs 684 million yesterday = (-8%)
NASDAQ - 1.47 billion today vs 1.58b billion yesterday = (-8%)
Still not getting the entry we would like in this choppy session. Still tracking Nat Gas (QG) for a long entry on the 5m chart. If we do get one, it will only be for a short scalp.
NASDAQ - 1.47 billion today vs 1.58b billion yesterday = (-8%)
Still not getting the entry we would like in this choppy session. Still tracking Nat Gas (QG) for a long entry on the 5m chart. If we do get one, it will only be for a short scalp.
Morning Volume
NYSE (-6%)
NASDAQ (-11%)
Volume down from yesterday. We were tracking longs on both the NQ and TF and both have made moves up without giving us a system entry. This market is tough and we don't want to chase. The markets makers are just waiting for traders to pile in to rip it back so we are going to stay paitient.
We are tracking a long setup in Nat Gas (QG). 5m chart is tracing out a triangle so keep this on your radar.
NASDAQ (-11%)
Volume down from yesterday. We were tracking longs on both the NQ and TF and both have made moves up without giving us a system entry. This market is tough and we don't want to chase. The markets makers are just waiting for traders to pile in to rip it back so we are going to stay paitient.
We are tracking a long setup in Nat Gas (QG). 5m chart is tracing out a triangle so keep this on your radar.
Watching NQ
We are tracking a possible long setup on the NQ. The internals are slightly positive but not showing a whole lot of strenght. Plus with 3 of the 4 horsemen negative on the session and GOOG taking it on the chin we don't want to force a long play. So keep an eye on your 5m chart but we probably are still going to stay on the sidelines.
Today’s Market Guidance (From Profit Source Futures & FX Research)
Financial Overview:
Treasury prices have fallen back overnight after what seemed to be an overreaction to the larger than expected decline in US Pending Home sales figures. The market will face a rather active economic report slate today, with some private job forecasts and FOMC meeting minutes mixed into the equation. While we are skeptical toward the magnitude of the gains forged in the prior trading session, the Pending Home sales figures were weak and the Press was already focused on ongoing travails associated with the US government mortgage assistance program. Therefore, the Treasury market has become more sensitive to soft economic readings and that could make the private payroll numbers this morning a little more important. We suspect that the market will mostly discount what is expected to be a slightly higher ISM Non Manufacturing reading and that the market might take a larger look than usual at the Mortgage application survey figures that will be released very early today. In addition to the sharp slide in Pending Home sales yesterday, we have to wonder if the recent rise in long term interest rates, will dramatically impact the pace of mortgage applications and or the pace of refinancing. In addition to the moderately oversold condition of Treasuries at last week's lows, the market now seems to be embracing the weak numbers and discounting the good numbers and that would seem to leave a weak short covering bias in place ahead of the US payroll reading on Friday morning. It would also seem like the market has a number of players that think the November Payroll release was a one off reading and that Friday's numbers will disappoint. Furthermore, there are a number of forecasters calling for an up tick in the unemployment rate and that could serve as a warning that the jobs situation will indeed be the last to improve. On the other hand, there are also a number of estimates calling for gains in Non Farm payrolls and that would seem to set the stage for a volatility event this Friday. While prices have started out lower today, we would not be surprised to see buying support come in later today in anticipation of the FOMC meeting minutes release, as the Fed is more than likely set to reiterate the need to leave interest rates down for an extended period of time. In fact, if the market were to fall back slightly, off the early numbers, short term traders might consider getting long for an FOMC meeting minutes bounce. In short, we think that March bonds can claw back above 116-00 again, but given the thick resistance off the bottom of the August through September consolidation zone up around the 117-00 level, we wouldn't expect to see a sustained rally without a really soft set of readings on Friday. With March Notes already into the bottom of the August through September consolidation zone, we would peg really solid resistance at 116-16 in the coming two trading sessions. The overall down trend pattern hasn't ended, but we suspect that the market wants to attempt some upside action into and through the Fed's dialogue later today. However, news on the supply front and the claims data on Thursday morning could make a late rally today, a short side opportunity into the close today!
Mini-Dow:
Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The near-term upside objective is at 10596. The next area of resistance is around 10571 and 10596, while 1st support hits today at 10489 and below there at 10431.
S&P E-Mini:
The market made a new contract high on the rally. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The near-term upside objective is at 1138.75. The next area of resistance is around 1136.50 and 1138.75, while 1st support hits today at 1128.50 and below there at 1122.75.
Gold:
While the press overnight touted evidence of demand in the Indian gold trade overnight, that market actually finished lower and that in turn could suggest that currency related action continues to dominate portions of the gold trade. Fortunately for the bull camp, the gold trade continues to discount classic supply side news, as the Chinese overnight posted an 11 month gold production gain of 15% over the same period in 2008. At least initially today it would seem that the gold market has largely ignored suggestions from the ECB that they would not bail out Greece, as the credit ratings issue has mostly been a negative to gold prices since the Thanksgiving Dubai incident. Apparently some gold traders saw the favorable Ford auto sales figures from Tuesday as a supportive development, but seeing gold benefit from favorable US economic readings ahead might also mean that gold will have to break its inverse relationship with the Dollar. Traders should be on the look out for a possible lift in gold prices off the FOMC meeting minutes release, as the expectations call for the Fed to reiterate the need to leave rates low. It should also be noted that February gold has flirted with the 50 day moving average in every session this week, with that level today pegged at $1,119.50.
Silver:
With another new high for the move overnight in March silver, one could say that silver is outperforming the gold market. The bulls will also point out the fact that silver has definitively risen above the 50 day moving average this week, while the February gold contract seemed to be set to waffle around that technical point on its charts. It is possible that silver is deriving some outside market support from firmer copper price action this morning but seeing the silver trading markedly higher this morning in the face of minor gains in the Dollar, would seem to point to a slight shift in recent trading patterns. In addition to overcoming minor strength in the Dollar in the early trade today, silver is also managing its initial strength in the face of moderate weakness in US equity prices! Some players are suggesting that silver is benefiting from fresh fund allocation buying for 2010.
Crude:
Crude oil has generally seen a lower trade overnight with the market under some pressure after yesterday's API report showed an unexpected build in product stocks and as some weather services see a slight warm up in temperatures later in the month. The weak price action in gasoline and heating oil and perhaps a stronger Dollar seem to be the main weights on the oil market this morning. But so far there doesn't appear to be too much conviction in the selling interest in crude oil this morning perhaps since the API report also showed an unexpected 2.2 million barrel decline in oil stocks when most traders were looking for little change. There is certainly a strong bullish undertone to the market since oil prices gained yesterday despite a mixed bag of economic news showing a jump in factory orders and a slide in pending home sales. But with February crude oil also becoming overbought on the steep rally from the December low, the upside potential for the market to rally much beyond the $82 price level right now may be limited by the market's technical condition unless a steady stream of bullish economic and inventory news is seen this session. February crude oil has rallied over $11 in the past two and a half weeks on rising oil demand expectations tied to above normal winter fuel needs, signs that the global economic recovery is starting to accelerate and from escalating geopolitical concerns. While we suspect these same themes could eventually lift crude oil above the October high, we also see the potential for the oil market to pull back a bit on profit taking ahead of Friday's critical employment report. Trading could turn quite volatile this session since the market will initially be reacting to reports on the US service sector and a report measuring private sector employment last month ahead of the EIA inventory report. With a selling bias in crude oil already in place, bullish readings for both the economic and inventory news will likely need to be seen in order for the bull camp to regain control. Otherwise, we suspect a fair amount of profit taking could surface that could pressure February crude oil back towards the $80 price level. Support points for February crude oil come in at $81.35 then near $81.10 and below there near $80.75 with resistance at $82 then near $82.30.
Natural Gas:
Natural gas has been able to bounce a bit overnight following yesterday's price slump and while the winter chill may still limit the downside in this market, the cold weather on its own may not be enough to support a move in February natural gas above the pivotal $6.00 price level. Natural gas prices slid in yesterday's trade after the National Weather Service forecasted temperatures in the Midwest would moderate towards more normal levels between January 12th and the 18th from the frigid conditions being seen this week. Since the last two storage reports have shown draw downs in gas stocks below expectations, even a slight temperature warm up can give the bear camp a fresh advantage. However, it still looks as if the temperature forecast remains cold enough to limit the downside in February natural gas to the $5.50 to $5.41 price range. Critical to near-term market direction will be this week's storage report with the range of withdrawal estimates between 130 bcf and 172 bcf. We suspect a much larger gas storage drain will need to be seen in order for February natural gas to challenge the December high. But a recovery in industrial fuel use will be the key to a sustained rally in natural gas and for that outlook to start to take hold we suspect the trade will need to see the balance of the economic reports this week come in above expectations. In fact, part of the gains in natural gas overnight may have been tied to the sharp jump in Ford Motor auto sales last month giving a glimmer of hope that industrial fuel use may be on the verge of recovering this year. For today's trade, natural gas could be influenced by the EIA inventory report for crude oil, a report on the private sector job situation and a measure of the US service industry. But with the storage report out on Thursday, we doubt February natural gas will be pushed outside the market's $6.00 to $5.50 price range.
Treasury prices have fallen back overnight after what seemed to be an overreaction to the larger than expected decline in US Pending Home sales figures. The market will face a rather active economic report slate today, with some private job forecasts and FOMC meeting minutes mixed into the equation. While we are skeptical toward the magnitude of the gains forged in the prior trading session, the Pending Home sales figures were weak and the Press was already focused on ongoing travails associated with the US government mortgage assistance program. Therefore, the Treasury market has become more sensitive to soft economic readings and that could make the private payroll numbers this morning a little more important. We suspect that the market will mostly discount what is expected to be a slightly higher ISM Non Manufacturing reading and that the market might take a larger look than usual at the Mortgage application survey figures that will be released very early today. In addition to the sharp slide in Pending Home sales yesterday, we have to wonder if the recent rise in long term interest rates, will dramatically impact the pace of mortgage applications and or the pace of refinancing. In addition to the moderately oversold condition of Treasuries at last week's lows, the market now seems to be embracing the weak numbers and discounting the good numbers and that would seem to leave a weak short covering bias in place ahead of the US payroll reading on Friday morning. It would also seem like the market has a number of players that think the November Payroll release was a one off reading and that Friday's numbers will disappoint. Furthermore, there are a number of forecasters calling for an up tick in the unemployment rate and that could serve as a warning that the jobs situation will indeed be the last to improve. On the other hand, there are also a number of estimates calling for gains in Non Farm payrolls and that would seem to set the stage for a volatility event this Friday. While prices have started out lower today, we would not be surprised to see buying support come in later today in anticipation of the FOMC meeting minutes release, as the Fed is more than likely set to reiterate the need to leave interest rates down for an extended period of time. In fact, if the market were to fall back slightly, off the early numbers, short term traders might consider getting long for an FOMC meeting minutes bounce. In short, we think that March bonds can claw back above 116-00 again, but given the thick resistance off the bottom of the August through September consolidation zone up around the 117-00 level, we wouldn't expect to see a sustained rally without a really soft set of readings on Friday. With March Notes already into the bottom of the August through September consolidation zone, we would peg really solid resistance at 116-16 in the coming two trading sessions. The overall down trend pattern hasn't ended, but we suspect that the market wants to attempt some upside action into and through the Fed's dialogue later today. However, news on the supply front and the claims data on Thursday morning could make a late rally today, a short side opportunity into the close today!
Mini-Dow:
Momentum studies are trending higher but have entered overbought levels. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The near-term upside objective is at 10596. The next area of resistance is around 10571 and 10596, while 1st support hits today at 10489 and below there at 10431.
S&P E-Mini:
The market made a new contract high on the rally. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. It is a mildly bullish indicator that the market closed over the pivot swing number. The near-term upside objective is at 1138.75. The next area of resistance is around 1136.50 and 1138.75, while 1st support hits today at 1128.50 and below there at 1122.75.
Gold:
While the press overnight touted evidence of demand in the Indian gold trade overnight, that market actually finished lower and that in turn could suggest that currency related action continues to dominate portions of the gold trade. Fortunately for the bull camp, the gold trade continues to discount classic supply side news, as the Chinese overnight posted an 11 month gold production gain of 15% over the same period in 2008. At least initially today it would seem that the gold market has largely ignored suggestions from the ECB that they would not bail out Greece, as the credit ratings issue has mostly been a negative to gold prices since the Thanksgiving Dubai incident. Apparently some gold traders saw the favorable Ford auto sales figures from Tuesday as a supportive development, but seeing gold benefit from favorable US economic readings ahead might also mean that gold will have to break its inverse relationship with the Dollar. Traders should be on the look out for a possible lift in gold prices off the FOMC meeting minutes release, as the expectations call for the Fed to reiterate the need to leave rates low. It should also be noted that February gold has flirted with the 50 day moving average in every session this week, with that level today pegged at $1,119.50.
Silver:
With another new high for the move overnight in March silver, one could say that silver is outperforming the gold market. The bulls will also point out the fact that silver has definitively risen above the 50 day moving average this week, while the February gold contract seemed to be set to waffle around that technical point on its charts. It is possible that silver is deriving some outside market support from firmer copper price action this morning but seeing the silver trading markedly higher this morning in the face of minor gains in the Dollar, would seem to point to a slight shift in recent trading patterns. In addition to overcoming minor strength in the Dollar in the early trade today, silver is also managing its initial strength in the face of moderate weakness in US equity prices! Some players are suggesting that silver is benefiting from fresh fund allocation buying for 2010.
Crude:
Crude oil has generally seen a lower trade overnight with the market under some pressure after yesterday's API report showed an unexpected build in product stocks and as some weather services see a slight warm up in temperatures later in the month. The weak price action in gasoline and heating oil and perhaps a stronger Dollar seem to be the main weights on the oil market this morning. But so far there doesn't appear to be too much conviction in the selling interest in crude oil this morning perhaps since the API report also showed an unexpected 2.2 million barrel decline in oil stocks when most traders were looking for little change. There is certainly a strong bullish undertone to the market since oil prices gained yesterday despite a mixed bag of economic news showing a jump in factory orders and a slide in pending home sales. But with February crude oil also becoming overbought on the steep rally from the December low, the upside potential for the market to rally much beyond the $82 price level right now may be limited by the market's technical condition unless a steady stream of bullish economic and inventory news is seen this session. February crude oil has rallied over $11 in the past two and a half weeks on rising oil demand expectations tied to above normal winter fuel needs, signs that the global economic recovery is starting to accelerate and from escalating geopolitical concerns. While we suspect these same themes could eventually lift crude oil above the October high, we also see the potential for the oil market to pull back a bit on profit taking ahead of Friday's critical employment report. Trading could turn quite volatile this session since the market will initially be reacting to reports on the US service sector and a report measuring private sector employment last month ahead of the EIA inventory report. With a selling bias in crude oil already in place, bullish readings for both the economic and inventory news will likely need to be seen in order for the bull camp to regain control. Otherwise, we suspect a fair amount of profit taking could surface that could pressure February crude oil back towards the $80 price level. Support points for February crude oil come in at $81.35 then near $81.10 and below there near $80.75 with resistance at $82 then near $82.30.
Natural Gas:
Natural gas has been able to bounce a bit overnight following yesterday's price slump and while the winter chill may still limit the downside in this market, the cold weather on its own may not be enough to support a move in February natural gas above the pivotal $6.00 price level. Natural gas prices slid in yesterday's trade after the National Weather Service forecasted temperatures in the Midwest would moderate towards more normal levels between January 12th and the 18th from the frigid conditions being seen this week. Since the last two storage reports have shown draw downs in gas stocks below expectations, even a slight temperature warm up can give the bear camp a fresh advantage. However, it still looks as if the temperature forecast remains cold enough to limit the downside in February natural gas to the $5.50 to $5.41 price range. Critical to near-term market direction will be this week's storage report with the range of withdrawal estimates between 130 bcf and 172 bcf. We suspect a much larger gas storage drain will need to be seen in order for February natural gas to challenge the December high. But a recovery in industrial fuel use will be the key to a sustained rally in natural gas and for that outlook to start to take hold we suspect the trade will need to see the balance of the economic reports this week come in above expectations. In fact, part of the gains in natural gas overnight may have been tied to the sharp jump in Ford Motor auto sales last month giving a glimmer of hope that industrial fuel use may be on the verge of recovering this year. For today's trade, natural gas could be influenced by the EIA inventory report for crude oil, a report on the private sector job situation and a measure of the US service industry. But with the storage report out on Thursday, we doubt February natural gas will be pushed outside the market's $6.00 to $5.50 price range.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
